Wednesday, 25 April 2012

Gold may touch $7,000 per ounce before end of uptrend

According to Bank of  America Analyst MacNeilCurry, gold prices would need to double in less than a year to show the kind of extreme momentum that would signal the end to the long-term cyclical uptrend. "Until we see price action take some kind of massive speculative blow-off, where prices effectively double in a year or less, I have to maintain a long-term bullish bias."

The technical strategist added that gold's price could double in a shorter time frame, and that he was watching momentum most closely for indication of the kind of speculative fluctuations that would signal an end to the secular bull trend.

"That says to me, we'll probably see a move in gold, before all is said and done, to between $3,000 to $5,000 (per ounce) and potentially $7,000 per ounce," he said.

Using Elliott Wave counts on a logarithmic chart dating back to 1969, Curry's analysis points to a long-term target for gold at $6,081 per ounce. Gold has met an initial wave target at $1,801 an ounce, but momentum is much too subdued to doubt the uptrend, he said.

For example, gold's recent fluctuations have transpired amid very low volume. Friday's was the lowest so far this year. The chartist identified an intermediate price goal at $2,982 channel resistance, but warned, "The risks are to the upside."

The second major signal necessary to predict the cyclical uptrend was over is extremely high volatility. "If you go back and look at daily price highs at long-term tops across commodities, you should see daily ranges at high prices of about 10 to 15 percent, potentially 20 percent."

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